Sunday, March 21, 2010

Missed Opportunities

A disappointing loss to the league-worst Oilers, followed by a big win over the mighty Canucks -- a weekend one wouldn't be blamed for being surprised by, but this is the story of the Red Wings season, and after seeing these stats, you may not be so surprised in retrospect.

Against Teams Currently in the Playoffs
The Red Wings don't seem to do too bad against the better teams in the league with an overall record of 22-9-7 (.671%) against the top 8 of the East and West. Amazingly, of those 15 teams, Detroit has a losing record to only TWO of them -- New Jersey (OTL) and Pittsburgh (OTL).

Against Current Division Leaders
When playing the cream of the crop, the Wings fortunes don't seem to fade much at all. Their cumulative record against Washington, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, San Jose, Chicago and Vancouver is an outstanding 10-5-3 (.639%).

Against Teams Currently OUT of the playoffs
The Red Wings ability to take points away from the lower-placed teams in the league inexplicably erodes with a 13-14-6 (.485%) record.

Against Teams Currently Last in their Division
The Wings record amazingly worsens further against the bottom-feeders of the league. When playing Anaheim, Columbus, Edmonton, Florida, NY Islanders and Toronto they are a disenchanting 4-5-4 (.462%).

How can this be? How can Detroit get 63.9% of the points available against the best teams in the league but only 46.2% against the worst?

If Detroit could maintain that .639 pts% against these punching bags of the league, they would have 6 more points on the season and be battling Los Angeles for the fifth seed without any worries of missing the playoffs.

Statistics like this can only be a reflection of the team's mindset when approaching games. At times, Detroit doesn't seem to take these lowly teams seriously, almost with an expectation that they'll be awarded the points regardless of the result. It's great to see them save their fight for the big teams and pick up big wins like the one in Vancouver, but the problem lies here:

Games remaining x 11, including (EDM x 1, CBJ x 3, MIN x 1, STL x 1).

Most people think that it's great news that only a few of Detroit's remaining games are against playoff teams. But with the current .485% points rate they have against teams outside looking in, they'd only get 6 points of 12. Can the Wings really make the playoffs if they drop 6 points. Not to mention the tough games to play against PIT, NSH x 2, PHI and CHI will almost certainly see further points lost.

The bottom line is, Detroit needs to take every game seriously. Losing to Edmonton was unacceptable given the situation, and thinking this easy schedule means automatic points is as good as practicing your golf swing.


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